Thursday, September 21, 2017

Reproducing L&W 2005

Luckman & Wilson 2005, Fig 1a (red) overlaid with my reproduction (blue)

Wednesday, September 6, 2017

WHUT's Tidal Model of ENSO

Paul Pukite (aka WHUT or geoenergymath) has a Tidal Model of ENSO based on solar / lunar gravitational forcing.  I've been following his travails in working through the his models since he first began writing about CSALT back in 2013.

WHUT can annoy some people with his constant peddling of his ENSO model, but I really can't blame him.  He's found that ENSO is a largely deterministic process that can be both hindcast and forecast with pretty damn good accuracy -- especially when one considers that many believe that ENSO cannot be predicted more than 4 to 6 months in advance and that as a result natural variability in climate is chaotic and impossible to predict.

I've seen many dismiss WHUT's claims on general grounds, but never actually dispute any of the math or results.  I can only assume they've never actually taken the 10 or 15 minutes time to look at his model and the results.

He has been treated like a crackpot in some venues and I'm either a fool or they are.  Someone needs to tell me what's actually *wrong* with his model as opposed to just dismissing it out-of-hand.  A simple graph like this should be enough to catch anyone's eye that's paying any attention whatsoever.

ENSO model for predicting El Nino and La Nina events

Thursday, August 31, 2017

How do we put tides in GCMs?

How do we put tides in GCMs?

The accuracy of surface elevations in forward global barotropic and baroclinic tide models, Arbic et al, 2004, doi:10.1016/j.dsr2.2004.09.014 lists 10 different parameters that need to be set.  The anomalistic month appears as Mm, but geoenergymath/WHUT's Tidal Model of ENSO also requires the tropical and draconic numbers.

The limitations, computational expense, and difficulty in achieving this is probably best spelled out by reading Concurrent simulation of the eddying general circulation and tides in a global ocean model, Arbic et al, 2010,  pre-print pdf