Thursday, April 20, 2017

Wednesday, February 8, 2017

Means and mean error

Three sets of synthetic data:

Set L is a linear function increasing in value with each year.  Set R is a random normal distribution, and Set S is a sine function.  Do they RMSEs in and of themselves tell us anything about these functions? No.  Only by looking at the actual data would we be able to see this.



Tuesday, February 7, 2017

Someone forgot to tell the arctic to wait for Karl to bust the pause.



I was going to add text and arrow for "Curry jumps shark" but there would have been too many arrows and the graph too cluttered.

Saturday, February 4, 2017

Annual FDDs per DMI N80

Annual Total Accumulated Freezing Degree Days
(August 1st thru May 31st)

Does not include this freezing season as it is not yet complete.

So, what's happening during the summer months of June & July?


Odd, melt season temperatures are actually *decreasing* - now why would that be?




Thursday, February 2, 2017

N80 Freezing Degree Days thru Feb 2, 2017

Freezing Degree Days thru Feb 2, 2017
(Climatology = 1958 to 2002)

Accumulated FDDs 
Climatology: 3095.9
2016-7:          1833.0
Anomaly:     -1262.9


Implied new ice thickness to date:
Per Lebedev:
Climo:   1.755 m
2016-7:  1.288 m

Per Bilello:
Climo:   1.408 m
2016-7:  1.039 m

Thursday, January 26, 2017

Accumulated Freezing Degree Days N80 thru Jan 26, 2017

Accumulated Freezing Degree Days N80 thru Jan 26, 2017:
Climatology: 2899.4
2016:            1683.9
Anomaly:     -1215.4



Implied new ice thickness to date:
Per Lebedev:
Climo: 1.688 m
2016:   1.225 m

Per Billelo
Climo:  1.355 m
2016:    0.989 m


Note: Anyone claiming a "recovery" in extent is ignoring new ice thickness this year is 27% less than climatology and 10 to 15% less than the average of the past decade.  The accumulated FDD anomaly is now greater than at *any* time in the DMI N80 dataset with 40% of the freezing season still to go.