Wednesday, February 8, 2017

Means and mean error

Three sets of synthetic data:

Set L is a linear function increasing in value with each year.  Set R is a random normal distribution, and Set S is a sine function.  Do they RMSEs in and of themselves tell us anything about these functions? No.  Only by looking at the actual data would we be able to see this.

Tuesday, February 7, 2017

Someone forgot to tell the arctic to wait for Karl to bust the pause.

I was going to add text and arrow for "Curry jumps shark" but there would have been too many arrows and the graph too cluttered.

Saturday, February 4, 2017

Annual FDDs per DMI N80

Annual Total Accumulated Freezing Degree Days
(August 1st thru May 31st)

Does not include this freezing season as it is not yet complete.

So, what's happening during the summer months of June & July?

Odd, melt season temperatures are actually *decreasing* - now why would that be?

Thursday, February 2, 2017

N80 Freezing Degree Days thru Feb 2, 2017

Freezing Degree Days thru Feb 2, 2017
(Climatology = 1958 to 2002)

Accumulated FDDs 
Climatology: 3095.9
2016-7:          1833.0
Anomaly:     -1262.9

Implied new ice thickness to date:
Per Lebedev:
Climo:   1.755 m
2016-7:  1.288 m

Per Bilello:
Climo:   1.408 m
2016-7:  1.039 m